The Ballot and the Algorithm: Extremism, Elections, and Bangladesh's Democratic Reset
Bangladesh votes for the first time in a generation. The extremists are playing a longer game.
On February 12, 128 million Bangladeshis will go to the polls in what is likely the biggest democratic event of 2026. For millions, it will be the first competitive election of their lives. After the student-led uprising that toppled Sheikh Hasina in July 2024, and nearly two decades of authoritarian governance before that, the stakes could hardly be higher.
But the election is only half the story. SecDev’s latest KIRON report reveals a parallel contest that will long outlast polling day, one being fought not at ballot boxes but across the digital platforms where Bangladesh’s overwhelmingly young electorate now forms its political views.
The numbers are stark. Between January 2020 and January 2026, subscriptions to violent extremist channels in Bangladesh grew by 2,071%, from 1.7 million to over 37 million. Social media users grew by 77% over the same period. Mobile internet subscriptions grew by 22%. The extremist audience is not expanding because the internet is expanding. Existing users are diving deeper.
Al-Qaeda’s regional affiliate AQIS dominates this space, controlling 62% of known violent extremist channels. Its strategy is not to recruit bombers. It is to build social legitimacy through religious outreach, exploit grievances around sovereignty and identity, and hollow out trust in democratic pluralism from within, all while staying below the threshold of illegality. This is influence as infrastructure, patient and scalable.
The interim government period since August 2024 has been unusually permissive. Extremist groups have held massive public rallies, threatened cultural events, and positioned themselves for political participation, while counterterrorism agencies have been sidelined and the terrorism threat publicly downplayed. These groups have every incentive to prolong this environment rather than face an elected government with a popular mandate.
Islamic State–aligned bomb plots remain the most dangerous low-probability, high-impact election risk. The Keraniganj madrasa blast showed that Neo-JMB networks retain active IED-making capacity, with evidence pointing to the production of up to 85 devices intended for election-related targets; even a single successful or credibly attempted attack could disrupt voting, delegitimise results, or prolong interim governance—especially when militant-linked disinformation blunts public recognition of the threat.
The election, if it proceeds credibly, will restore a minimum threshold of democratic legitimacy. But it will not neutralise the networks that have spent eighteen months entrenching themselves. The post-election period will shift the contest from disruption to subversion: delegitimising outcomes, exploiting transitional justice processes, and turning every government security response into an echo of past repression.
Bangladesh is entering a period where the question is no longer whether democracy can return, but whether it can hold.
Introducing Digonto- SecDev’s AI Election Early-Warning Dashboard:
The Digonto dashboard is an AI-powered analytical tool built on top of SecDev’s proprietary, source-agnostic intelligence platform (SAINT). It automatically ingests and aggregates data from a wide range of open and closed sources - including national and local media, social media, police reports, and other bespoke information streams - to deliver a real-time, at-a-glance assessment of Bangladesh’s security landscape across a number of critical measures. This public version of Digonto serves as a security heuristic, offering decision-makers a coup d’œil perspective on emerging and existing risks. Advanced versions incorporate AI-powered chatbots for more precise real-time interrogation of the data and instant report generation.
KIRON is a transparency initiative that illuminates Bangladesh’s digital ecosystem to address emerging threats. Named for the Bangla word “sunbeam,” the project uses continuous monitoring and open-source analysis to build awareness and capacity among key stakeholders—courts, law enforcement, and civil society—enabling informed decision-making in Bangladesh’s complex digital landscape. Implemented by SecDev with Global Affairs Canada support.
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