South Asia’s Brewing Digital Storm
How Bangladesh’s Democratic Revolution Created Space for Extremism
A special report from SecDev’s Kiron Project
As if South Asia did not need any more challenges, the combination of demographics, a newly activated Gen Z population, rapid digitisation and the proliferation of AI have all come together into a volatile mixture of change. In Bangladesh, this was acutely felt in 2024 when students - the Gen Z generation - overturned the long-established Awami League and thrust the country into a political vacuum.
But in the midst of this democratic awakening, violent extremist groups have learnt something far more dangerous than bomb-making: how to seize the political mainstream through patient infiltration rather than spectacular violence. They have risen to the political centre not despite past counterterrorism failures, but precisely because of how those failures were weaponised against the population itself.
The irony is stark. Years of authoritarian abuse masquerading as counterterrorism created the very vulnerabilities that extremist groups now exploit with methodical precision. What began as legitimate security concerns after real terrorist attacks between 2013-2016 devolved into a system of political control that hollowed out institutional credibility and public trust. The result? A country where the phrase “Jongi Natok” (staged militant drama) has become conventional wisdom - the widespread belief that all militancy is fabricated political theatre.
The Patient Conquest Strategy
Two comprehensive reports from SecDev’s Kiron project reveal the sophisticated nature of this extremist adaptation. Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has constructed what amounts to a parallel media ecosystem rivalling legitimate news organisations in both reach and professional quality. Their 29.5 million subscriptions across 1,245 social media channels represent more than digital metrics and constitute systematic infiltration of public discourse at unprecedented scale.
This is not your grandfather’s terrorism. Where once Al-Qaeda sought civilisational polarisation through spectacular violence, AQIS now pursues the same objectives through democratic exploitation - a transformation that may prove more dangerous than the original terrorist methodology. Using the same strategic patience and methodical planning that characterised 9/11, they have built sustainable recruitment pipelines in educational institutions while systematically embedding extremist ideology within mainstream political discourse.
The genius of their approach lies in exploiting Bangladesh’s counterterrorism credibility crisis. Years of documented extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and human rights violations created systematic public distrust that AQIS weaponises to position itself as more authentic than state actors. When senior police officials publicly admit that militancy for the past 18 years was in part a “staged drama,” extremist propagandists don’t need to convince anyone—the state has done their work for them.
This KIRON report reveals how Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent has built a 29.5 million-subscription digital empire to systematically embed extremist ideology within Bangladesh’s mainstream political discourse, abandoning spectacular violence for patient democratic infiltration.
The Digital Pipeline Paradox
Perhaps most troubling is how this domestic denial narrative provides perfect cover for transnational recruitment. While Bangladeshi public discourse insists “there are no militants in Bangladesh,” young Bangladeshis have been travelling to Afghanistan and Pakistan to join Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) since at least 2022. Social media channels openly share travel routes, training videos, and ideological justifications yet many dismiss these as impossible fabrications.
The pattern mirrors Bangladesh’s experience in the 1990s, when Afghan war veterans returning from the Soviet conflict seeded Harkat-ul-Jihad Bangladesh and orchestrated devastating attacks throughout the 2000s. Today’s risk is amplified by digital networks that allow returning fighters to reconnect instantly with vast online audiences. Battle-hardened veterans bring not only training in explosives and small arms but also prestige and global ties, potentially accelerating the transition from online agitation to operational militancy in a country where counterterrorism is already discredited.
This KIRON report analyzes how Bangladesh’s weaponised counterterrorism apparatus created the “Jongi Natok” (staged militant drama) narrative that extremists now exploit, while documented Bangladeshi recruitment into transnational jihadist groups continues under the cover of widespread denial.
A Template for Regional Instability
Bangladesh’s experience offers a troubling template for the broader regional challenges ahead. The same tensions driving instability - generational change, rapid digitisation, institutional mistrust, and the emergence of hybrid criminal economies - are present across South Asia. The convergence of demographic revolution (the world’s largest cohort of digitally native young adults), technological revolution (democratised information flows), and political revolution (shattered power structures) has created an unprecedented opening in political discourse.
This widening of the Overton window - the range of ideas considered acceptable in public debate - has emboldened groups that once operated in shadows to compete openly for influence. Where traditional counterterrorism focused on kinetic threats, today’s challenge involves comprehensive political warfare designed to exploit democratic freedoms while maintaining operational capabilities for violence when needed.
The February 2026 Inflection Point
The upcoming February 2026 elections represent more than a democratic transition - they mark a critical test of whether Bangladesh can navigate this digital storm without losing its democratic centre. As our monitoring reveals, extremist digital subscriptions have grown from 2.7 million in 2020 to just under 30 million by 2025, indicating a successful adaptation and society-wide normalisation of radical narratives.
The stakes extend far beyond Bangladesh’s borders. If extremist groups can successfully exploit democratic freedoms to mainstream radical ideologies while maintaining operational capabilities for violence, they will have solved terrorism’s fundamental strategic problem: how to achieve political objectives without provoking overwhelming retaliation. Success in Bangladesh could provide a replicable model for extremist movements worldwide, particularly in regions facing similar demographic and technological pressures.
Looking Ahead
As part of our special coverage of the region, SecDev will be cross-posting research and reports from our Kiron project, which focuses on monitoring social stability and the rise of extremist parties in Bangladesh. These two reports set the context for how extremist groups have moved into the political mainstream and what that means for Bangladesh’s future stability.
In December, we will begin special coverage of the Bangladesh election and its aftermath, jointly with the UNDP in Bangladesh. This collaboration reflects the international community’s recognition that Bangladesh’s experience navigating digital-age extremism and institutional reconstruction will offer critical lessons for democratic resilience in an era of technological disruption.
The question is no longer whether Bangladesh can restore security through traditional counterterrorism methods. The question is whether democracy itself can adapt to survive sophisticated exploitation by groups that have learned to weaponise its very openness. The answer will shape Bangladesh’s future and the broader contest between democratic values and extremist manipulation in the digital age.
The full reports “Al-Qaeda’s Patient Conquest of Bangladesh’s Political Discourse” and “Bangladesh’s Security Paradox: When Counterterrorism Becomes the Threat” are available through the SecDev Kiron project portal.
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