Escalation risks in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war
A game-theoretic assessment suggests the likeliest outcome is a war that gets worse without anyone quite deciding to make it so
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched the largest coordinated military strike on a sovereign state since the invasion of Iraq. In the process, they killed Iran’s supreme leader and set off a chain of events that has since closed the world’s most important oil chokepoint, sent energy prices surging, and left the global economy teeter…
