Canada's Energy Crossroads
Can a nation sitting on energy riches still find itself powerless?
The Canadian Gas Association Energy Security Summit held in Ottawa during the last week of March laid bare an uncomfortable paradox: Canada, blessed with abundant energy resources, finds itself strategically exposed on two critical fronts. The gathering of industry leaders and security experts revealed how decades of comfortable relations with the United States have created both physical and digital dependencies that now threaten Canadian energy sovereignty. As geopolitical winds shift and cyber threats multiply, Canada faces an urgent need to reimagine its energy landscape - transforming from a dependent supplier to an equal partner in North American energy security.
Geopolitical Realignment Threatens Traditional Energy Flows
For over a century, Canada and the United States maintained a predictable energy relationship. The logic seemed impeccable: Alberta would send its hydrocarbons south for processing, while eastern Canada would receive natural gas from New York State. This arrangement evolved naturally from mutual trust and economic pragmatism rather than strategic design. Infrastructure followed this path of least resistance, creating an extensive network of north-south pipelines and commercial relationships that worked smoothly - until they didn't.
The summit revealed how profoundly uncomfortable Canada's energy executives have become with this arrangement. Peter Van Praagh of the Halifax International Security Forum articulated what many were thinking but few had publicly acknowledged: Canada must take the Trump administration seriously on questions of sovereignty, with energy being central to that equation. The comfortable assumption of perpetual stability in U.S.-Canada relations has evaporated.
What makes this geopolitical shift particularly challenging is the entrenched nature of existing infrastructure. Decades of investment have created a physical energy architecture that cannot be rapidly reconfigured. The pipes flow south, the refineries sit across the border, and eastern Canada remains disconnected from western resources. The very arrangements that once represented economic efficiency now constitute strategic vulnerability.
Digital Sovereignty: The Critical Exposed Flank
While physical infrastructure vulnerabilities dominated many summit conversations, an even more profound threat emerged through discussions of digital sovereignty. In session after session, industry leaders acknowledged their deep dependence on digital systems - and the uncomfortable reality that these systems remain largely under foreign control.
The oil and gas sector has become utterly reliant on computational resources, cloud services, and specialized software predominantly supplied by American providers. This digital dependency extends across the entire supply chain from exploration sensors to pipeline monitoring systems to trading platforms. More concerning still is the growing target these systems present to both state actors and cybercriminals.
Ukraine's experience featured prominently in these discussions, offering sobering lessons about how energy infrastructure can become a primary battleground in modern conflict. Michael Chertoff's assessment crystallized the concern: cybersecurity represents a critical element in protecting infrastructure essential to industrial societies, and Canada's energy sector remains particularly exposed due to its digital vulnerability.
The summit recognized that building resilience in this domain may prove even more challenging than laying new pipelines. Physical infrastructure follows straightforward engineering principles; digital sovereignty requires developing entire technological ecosystems that currently don't exist within Canadian borders.
From Dependence to Interdependence
Perhaps the most profound insight emerging from the summit was the recognition that Canada's energy relationship with the United States has functioned as dependence rather than true interdependence. The distinction is not merely semantic- it reflects a fundamental power imbalance that has shaped Canada's energy development for generations.
Dependence implies vulnerability, with one party needing the relationship more than the other. Interdependence suggests mutual reliance with balanced leverage. Canada has provided resources while failing to build the national infrastructure that would create a more equitable partnership. From regulatory frameworks to pricing mechanisms to investment patterns, the relationship has evolved in ways that maximize American flexibility while constraining Canadian options.
Private discussions at the summit revealed diverse perspectives on responding to this reality. Some participants saw opportunity in deeper integration with American markets, arguing that U.S. energy dominance could benefit Canada through scale and efficiency. Others expressed concern about diverging values and priorities, noting that Canada's commitments to multilateralism, climate action, and international institutions might increasingly conflict with American policy directions.
What united these perspectives was the recognition that the status quo has become untenable. Canada must forge a new relationship with its southern neighbor—not by severing ties, but by strengthening its position through strategic autonomy and diversified capabilities.
Strategic Imperatives for Canadian Energy Security
The summit identified several critical initiatives required to address Canada's energy vulnerabilities. Building robust east-west energy corridors would reduce dependence on north-south flows, while reestablishing domestic refining capabilities would retain more value within Canadian borders. Developing port infrastructure capable of reaching global markets would create alternatives to American buyers, while strategic energy reserves would provide buffer against supply disruptions.
Digital sovereignty demands equal attention. Developing independent computational capabilities, supporting Canadian technology providers, and creating robust cybersecurity frameworks would reduce vulnerability to digital disruption or coercion. These initiatives require significant investment and political will, but represent essential components of a comprehensive energy security strategy.
Beyond hydrocarbons, the summit emphasized Canada's broader energy potential. As an energy superpower, Canada possesses significant advantages in nuclear technology—particularly small modular reactors where Canadian firms maintain world-leading expertise. Hydroelectric resources represent another strategic asset that could be further developed and integrated into a holistic energy approach.
Time-Critical Window for Action
The summit occurred at a pivotal moment - with American policy evolving under the Trump administration and a Canadian federal election approaching. This convergence creates both urgency and opportunity. Decisions made or deferred in the coming months will shape Canada's energy landscape for decades, regardless of which party forms the next government.
What emerged most clearly was the need for a coherent, comprehensive energy strategy that transcends partisan divisions. Canada's energy security cannot afford to become a political football, oscillating with each electoral cycle. Instead, it requires sustained commitment to building resilience, autonomy, and interdependence.
The current geopolitical tensions offer Canada a rare opportunity to reimagine its energy strategy. Far from weakening ties with the United States, transforming from dependence to interdependence would ultimately strengthen North American energy security by creating a more resilient, balanced relationship between the two nations.
Building energy sovereignty alongside digital sovereignty represents not just prudent policy but an essential investment in Canada's future. The twin vulnerabilities exposed at the summit—physical infrastructure designed for a different geopolitical era and digital systems under foreign control—demand comprehensive response.
The path forward isn't about isolation or protectionism. Rather, it requires strategic autonomy that enables Canada to engage with the United States and other partners from a position of strength rather than necessity. A Canada that can process its own resources, reach diverse markets, and control its digital systems becomes a more valuable ally and a more resilient nation.
At this historical crossroads, Canada faces a clear choice: continue along the path of comfortable dependence with growing vulnerability, or embrace the challenge of building true energy sovereignty for an uncertain future. The Canadian Gas Association Energy Security Summit suggested the decision is already being made—Canada's energy leaders recognize that yesterday's assumptions no longer apply to tomorrow's challenges. The question that remains is whether this recognition will translate into the bold action necessary to secure Canada's energy future.
This analysis was written by Rafal Rohozinski, the Principal and CEO of Secdev, who leads the geopolitical and digital risk practice.