Aid Adrift
As Western wallets close, development's multipolar makeover begins
As the United States continues its withdrawal from the center of the rules-based international system, we're witnessing a parallel retreat from its traditional position as the epicenter of global soft power. This shift has profound implications for international development—a domain where American leadership and resources have been instrumental for decades.
This rapid withdrawal calls into question the entire development enterprise which, for better or worse, has been central to the slow but inexorable rise in the standard of living and quality of life for most of humanity around the world.
In a thought-provoking article for the World Economic Forum , SecDev Principal, Dr. Robert Muggah , along with Jago Salmon , Principal Fellow at ODI Global, lay out five potential scenarios for the future of global aid in this increasingly fractured landscape.
A System in Upheaval
The authors make it clear: we're not just experiencing a funding crisis but a crisis of shared purpose. The post-war aid architecture, constructed after the Second World War, is faltering under the pressure of nationalism, fiscal tightening, and intensifying geopolitical rivalries.
The five scenarios they identify aren't mutually exclusive - in fact, a patchwork of these futures is likely to unfold simultaneously across different regions and sectors:
Scenario 1: Disintegration and Drift
In this pessimistic vision, Western retreat from global development continues unabated. UN agencies face mounting funding shortfalls, with OCHA already cutting 20% of its staff this year. While local actors and domestic philanthropy are stepping up, the scale of global challenges overwhelms these decentralized efforts.
Scenario 2: Back to Basics
Western donors regroup but dramatically narrow their focus to core functions -humanitarian relief, migration deterrence, and maintaining geostrategic influence. Aid becomes more conditional and interest-driven, potentially sidelining issues like gender equity and conflict prevention.
Scenario 3: China Expands Its Footprint
As Western influence wanes, China fills the vacuum through its Belt and Road Initiative and growing involvement in health, digital infrastructure, and climate finance. While China shows little appetite for adopting Western development norms, it offers developing countries a more accessible alternative.
Scenario 4: BRICS+ Steps Up
An alternative multipolar development bloc centered on BRICS+ countries creates new financial instruments and governance models. The New Development Bank and regional development banks challenge Western-dominated institutions, potentially redefining development priorities away from Western frameworks.
Scenario 5: The Privatization of Aid
Private actors assume roles once reserved for states and NGOs. Consulting firms, blended finance mechanisms, and technological innovations bypass traditional aid channels. While this may drive innovation, it raises concerns about accountability gaps and the commodification of development.
Navigating an Uncertain Future
What's particularly insightful about Muggah and Salmon's analysis is their recognition that the future will likely be hybrid- combining elements of localization, private capital, bilateral aid, philanthropy, and multilateral improvisation.
For those working in the development and security sectors, this means developing strategic agility and build unconventional coalitions that span public and private boundaries. The fundamental challenge isn't just adapting to funding cuts, but to a profound realignment in global power.
As we move forward, the world's top development priorities- humanitarian assistance, poverty alleviation, access to finance, and shared public goods- remain more pressing than ever. The question is whether we can craft a new compact for development that recognizes the messy realities of our multipolar world.
Read the full article by Dr. Robert Muggah and Jago Salmon here: 5 futures for aid in a divided world